Evening-star

Evening Star:

Success Rate: Success rate is around 72%.

Average Price Change: Typically leads to a 5%–10% decline within 1–3 weeks after confirmation.

Description: The Evening Star is a three-candle bearish reversal pattern that appears after an uptrend. It signals that buyers are losing strength and sellers are taking control. It’s even stronger if the third candle "engulfs" a big part of the first candle’s body or comes with higher volume.

Here's a step-by-step explanation of how the Evenng Star candlestick pattern typically forms:

  1. Established Uptrend:
    • The Evening Star pattern typically appears during a well-established uptrend.
    • During this phase, price action is characterized by higher highs and higher lows, reflecting strong bullish momentum and continued buying pressure.
  2. First Candle (Bullish):
    • The pattern begins with a large bullish candlestick that signifies ongoing strength among buyers.
    • This candle confirms that the market is still favoring higher prices, with demand outweighing supply.
  3. Second Candle (Indecision/Stall):
    • The second candle is a small-bodied candle, indicating market indecision.
      • It can appear as a Doji, Spinning Top, or a small real body candle.
      • Ideally, the second candle gaps up from the first, suggesting that bulls attempted another rally but failed to follow through.
      • The narrow body represents a stall or pause in bullish momentum.
  4. Third Candle (Strong Bearish Candle):
    • The third candle is a strong bearish candlestick that closes deep into the body of the first bullish candle.
    • This bearish candle often gaps down on the open and closes significantly lower, reflecting a sharp shift in sentiment as sellers take control.
    • The third candle effectively erases the gains made by the first candle, confirming the reversal.
  5. Evening Star Structure:
    • The Evening Star is characterized by a three-candle formation:
      • A large bullish candle (buyers in control),
      • Followed by a small-bodied candle (indecision),
      • Completed by a large bearish candle (sellers taking over).
      • This structure visually resembles a "star" hanging high after an upward move, foreshadowing the end of the bullish phase.
  6. Volume Confirmation:
    • Volume analysis plays a key role in validating the Evening Star pattern.
    • Ideally, the bearish third candle should be accompanied by higher-than-average volume, indicating strong selling pressure and reinforcing the likelihood of a trend reversal.
  7. Resistance Level:
    • The high formed during the Evening Star pattern, typically at or near the second candle, acts as a resistance level.
    • This level represents the point where buyers were unable to push prices higher and sellers overwhelmed the market.
  8. Bearish Reversal Signal:
    • The Evening Star pattern serves as a bearish reversal signal, indicating a potential transition from an uptrend to a downtrend.
    • Traders interpret the completion of the pattern as evidence that bullish momentum has faded, and selling pressure is now dominant.
  9. Confirmation and Entry:
    • Traders often wait for confirmation of the Evening Star pattern by observing further bearish price action — such as a close below the low of the third candle.
    • Short positions may be initiated upon confirmation, with stop-loss orders placed above the high of the second (small-bodied) or third (bearish) candle to manage risk effectively.
  10. Monitoring and Validation:
    • After entering a trade based on the Evening Star pattern, traders continue to monitor price behavior closely.
    • Further validation from additional technical indicators (such as RSI bearish divergence, moving average crossovers, or trendline breaks) can increase the probability of success and help traders manage their positions more confidently.